When fantasy meets reality: Tony Pollard, Cowboys defense should deliver in tight NFC race

The fantasy football world is smiling on the Dallas Cowboys for a change. And it’s reasonable to think this is good news even for Cowboys fans who don’t play the fantasy game.

Some folks believe the most important number for Dallas was the 99 that guard Zack Martin got as a Madden rating. As someone who grew up on Foto-Electric Football, I can’t help you with video games. For me and millions of others, the more relevant number is Tony Pollard’s 5.

That’s his Average Draft Position among backs in NFL fantasy drafts, and he was the sixth running back chosen in the all-important 13th Annual Fantasy Nerds Charity League. I was invited back for a second season to join the fantasy geniuses from the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and XM Fantasy Radio despite having taken the league by storm last year with a 12-2 record (before crashing in the playoffs).

This year I was given a D- for my draft, largely due to my selection of Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins in the third round and I won’t really try to explain that beyond the fact it’s a two-quarterback league and they were flying off the board so I may have hit the panic button. We’ll see. Back to the Cowboys.

Where Zeke Elliott was the 15th running back taken last year as he headed toward his Dallas finish line, Pollard went sixth and I can make the case for him going as high as second among backs. The 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey is listed first, and the man missed 23 games in the 2020-21 seasons. Tread lightly.

The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler, in the final season of a contentious contract struggle, is second and he’s still a fine player but who knows when offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will fall out with the running game there. Cleveland’s Nick Chubb is probably the most solid pick at the No. 3 spot since the Browns figure to improve with a full year from Deshaun Watson, but Chubb is really not part of the passing game. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson is fourth and could be great, but as a rookie with an inexperienced quarterback, will he see anything besides 8-man boxes?

The Giants’ Saquon Barkley went fifth in our draft, but Pollard’s ADP is higher and I would say he has more upside right now. We’re all curious to see how many carries he can handle when Zeke isn’t getting most or half of the load, but I don’t think anyone should assume Rico Dowdle is down for 100 carries this season. Pollard‘s league-best yards after contact and his pass-catching skills that got him into the league to begin with should keep him right at the top of the fantasy producers in the backfield.

Combine that upgrade with a defense that went second in the draft instead of 11th a year ago. Not everyone was ready to buy into Dan Quinn’s turnover machine in 2022. But when the Cowboys became the first team to lead the league in takeaways in consecutive seasons since the Steelers of the ‘70s, people took notice. It’s instructive that the top three defenses in ADP are the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles — the battle for NFC supremacy spelled out right there.

The bad news for Dallas? San Francisco has two top 25 wide receivers and a top five tight end to go with that No. 1 defense. Dallas can’t match that. Of course, the Cowboys have a much higher rated quarterback (Dak Prescott is 11th, last year’s rookie sensation Brock Purdy is 18th) and CeeDee Lamb checks in at No. 6 among wide receivers while Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are outside the top 15.

Where the Eagles are concerned, Jalen Hurts went first at quarterback. For those who don’t play fantasy, that doesn’t mean he’s better than the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes. It means he‘s very good and he picks up a lot more rushing yards and touchdowns than Mahomes. Hurts is viewed (correctly) as having superior weapons to Prescott. The Eagles have two top 15 wide receivers (A.J. Brown, 7th; DeVonta Smith, 13th) and a sixth-ranked tight end (Dallas Goedert). But they don’t have a top 30 back as no one really has a feel for how former Lion D’Andre Swift and former Seahawk Rashaad Penny fit into the mix with reserves Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.

Still, Dallas was the only NFL team to produce a top 12 quarterback, running back, wide receiver and defense. And two of those (Pollard and defense) figure to be special fantasy producers in 2023. That has to bode well for Cowboys fans whether they are fantasy-inclined or not.

It looks like a promising season. Now about that Cousins pick in the third round…

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